Contributors
Vice President of Global Supply Chain Optimization
May 5, 2025 • 7 Min Read
Today’s economic landscape is anything but predictable. Between shifting trade policies, global unrest, rising inflation, and volatile markets, leaders are constantly being challenged to adapt. While no one can forecast the future with certainty, we can learn from past events, like the pandemic, and use objective data to act with purpose.
At RGP, we believe agility starts with clarity. This paper draws from leading economic insights and our own deep experience across industries to help business leaders proactively prepare for disruption and uncover new opportunities in the process.
Translating Uncertainty into Action with VACU
The VACU model—Volatility, Ambiguity, Complexity, and Uncertainty—helps leaders cut through chaos with clarity. In times of disruption, clarity comes from focusing on the facts at hand. Here’s how to apply VACU to today’s economic and geopolitical challenges:
Volatility: Markets may be unstable, but the risks are clear. From inflation to investor confidence, companies can assess financial exposure and build proactive mitigation plans.
Ambiguity: When consumer needs shift and suppliers falter, it’s time to think differently. Rethink partnerships, evaluate new markets, and explore untapped opportunities—with a flexible mindset and smart scenario planning.
Complexity: More moving parts? More chances to adapt. Our cross-functional approach helps simplify complex problems into clear, actionable strategies based on experience and real-world insights.
Uncertainty: When outcomes are unclear, trusted data is your greatest asset. We help clients interpret trends, test assumptions, and make confident moves—without waiting for perfect clarity.
Seeing the Signals and Responding with Purpose
From rising inflation and shifting tariffs to slowing global growth, the signals are loud and clear: disruption is here. In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Americans named inflation, cost of living, and recession fears as their top concerns. Just days earlier, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, downgraded its global growth forecast to 2.8%, citing escalating trade tensions and market volatility.
Industries that depend heavily on raw materials—like automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals—are especially vulnerable. Costs are rising. Production is slowing. Pressure is mounting on both margins and consumer trust.
Now is the time for businesses to get back to basics—re-evaluating the fundamentals and putting guardrails in place that protect near-term operations while supporting long-term agility. That includes:
- Rethinking pricing strategies and margin targets to maintain flexibility and profitability
- Redesigning supply chains to withstand disruption and enable smarter sourcing
- Revisiting tax, compliance, and forecasting models for sharper decision-making
- Strengthening scenario planning to stay ready for what’s next
10 Ways to Recession-Proof Your Business
In uncertain times, staying steady takes more than just planning—it takes smart decisions, clear priorities, and a resilient mindset. Here are ten ways to help your business stay strong, nimble, and ready for whatever’s next.
01.
Rethink Your Budget Often
Create multiple versions of your budget—monthly or quarterly—to stay flexible. Use real-time data and financial modeling to track risks and find savings.
02.
Model Scenarios Before They Happen
Don’t guess—simulate. Use digital tools to run “what if” scenarios and adapt sourcing, inventory, and logistics plans on the fly.
03.
Upskill Instead of Downsizing
It’s tempting to freeze hiring or trim teams—but investing in people now can boost long-term performance and adaptability when it matters most.
04.
Know Your Risk Appetite
Assess how much risk your business can tolerate. Use that insight to pivot confidently—especially when rethinking product lines or go-to-market strategies.
05.
Renegotiate Where You Can
Review contracts with vendors and suppliers. Better terms or more strategic partnerships can free up cash and improve stability.
06.
Shore Up Supply Chain Weak Spots
Revisit everything from sourcing and procurement to warehousing and logistics. Even small tweaks can improve resilience and reduce costs.
07.
Explore New Markets
If global disruptions hit your usual trade routes, explore alternative partners or regions that are less impacted—and more open to growth.
08.
Stay Sharp on Tariff Shifts
Even temporary pauses on tariffs can impact pricing and planning. Monitor changes closely and build agile systems that keep you ahead of compliance.
09.
Don’t Overlook Culture
During tough times, a strong culture drives buy-in and resilience. Keep employees informed, supported, and connected to your bigger mission.
10.
Think Long-Term, Act Today
From reshoring to customer retention strategies, keep looking ahead. Lay the groundwork now for smarter operations and stronger relationships later.
RGP Can Help
We continue to face economic uncertainty—but businesses that act quickly and strategically can build lasting resilience. RGP is built to meet clients where they are. Our flexible consulting model delivers top-tier expertise across finance, risk, tech, operations, and more—driving fast results and measurable ROI. From technical execution to strategic advisory, we help leaders navigate complexity, make confident decisions, and move forward with clarity.
Our experts in Procurement, Finance & Accounting, Risk, and Supply Chain are ready to help you move forward—faster. Get in touch here.
